The climate conversation is everywhere. We are bombarded with warnings about rising temperatures, melting glaciers, and the urgent need to reduce our carbon footprint. While the potential consequences of human activity on the planet are serious and demand our attention, it’s crucial to approach the issue with a balanced perspective, acknowledging the Earth’s long and complex history of climate change.
Often, the narrative focusses solely on the unprecedented nature of our current situation, which is an important perspective, that draws our attention to the speed of change. But what if, instead of solely focussing on the unprecedented, we considered the context of the Earth’s deep past? What if we explored the natural cycles and fluctuations that have shaped our planet for millions of years, to consider how the evidence of the deep past might inform us too?
For instance, let’s travel back to the Age of the Dinosaurs. For a significant portion of that era, the Earth was considerably warmer than it is today. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were estimated to be five and twenty times higher than current levels. Lush forests thrived, even at the poles. This wasn’t necessarily a catastrophic scenario; life adapted and flourished in a different climate regime.
Then, consider the ice ages. While we are acutely aware of the risks of warming, it’s easy to forget that we are currently experiencing a relatively warm interglacial period within a larger ice age cycle. Over the past 2.5 – 3 million years, there have been six major ice ages. The last one began around 111,000 years ago and ended approximately 11,000 years ago. Glaciers carved out the Great Lakes, reshaped landscapes, and drastically altered sea levels.
These ice ages aren’t random events. They are driven by cyclical variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, known as Milankovitch cycles. These cycles affect the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, triggering long-term cooling trends that culminate in glacial advances. Scientists predict that, barring unforeseen circumstances, the next ice age is likely to occur in approximately 10,000 to 11,000 years.
So, what does this mean in the context of the current climate debate?
This isn’t about dismissing the impact of human activity or advocating for inaction. It’s about injecting a crucial dose of perspective into the conversation. It’s about acknowledging:
Climate change is a constant: The Earth’s climate has always been in flux. Natural cycles and events cause significant temperature shifts over vast timescales.
Higher CO2 levels aren’t always totally catastrophic (it’s the rate of change that’s the issue): The Earth has experienced periods of significantly higher CO2 levels in the past, supporting diverse ecosystems (albeit different from today’s).
There are natural limits to warming: The Milankovitch cycles suggest that, in the long term, the Earth is destined for another ice age.
The question then becomes: what is the optimal climate for humanity and the earth’s inhabitants, and how do we navigate the changes, both man-made and naturally occurring, in a way that minimises disruption and maximises our capacity to adapt?
We should consider the potential consequences of our actions, but also approach the challenge with a broader understanding of the Earth’s natural rhythms. Knee-jerk reactions and fear-mongering can lead to ineffective solutions. A more nuanced understanding, informed by geological history and climate science, will allow us to develop more effective and sustainable strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change and adapting to the inevitable fluctuations that lie ahead. We must realise therefore that while humanity can and should seek to slow the rate of climate change, to allow for adaptation: change is, nevertheless, inevitable.
Let’s move beyond the simplistic narratives and embrace a more sophisticated, long-term perspective. After all, the planet has been around for billions of years and will continue to exist long after we are gone. Our focus should be on preserving a habitable environment for ourselves and future generations, with an understanding that change is the only constant. Let’s equip ourselves with knowledge, critical thinking, and a long-term vision to navigate the complex challenges of a changing climate.
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See also: (1) Geologic Temperature Record, (2) What’s The Hottest Earth’s Ever Been?, (3) Dinosaur Era Had 5 Times Today’s CO2, (4) State of the Planet, (5) Could Dinosaurs Breathe Today’s Atmosphere?, (6) NASA: Climate Change Evidence.
Of special note, read: Landmark Study in Climate Change Links Warming to Ultra Wealthy. Quote: “According to the findings, the wealthiest 10 per cent of the global population are responsible for a staggering two-thirds of historical global warming.” This suggests that is not humanity, as a whole, that needs to change its ways, to reduce rapid global warming, but rather the ultra wealthy who need to curb their excessive lifestyles.
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